One week out from Election Day and Democrat candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris is losing. How do we know? Turnout in states like Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina favors Republicans, GOP candidate and former President Donald Trump is leading Harris in New Hampshire (a state Joe Biden won by 7 points), Harris is mimicking Trump campaign tactics, like meeting Black men in a barber shop, Democrat Mayor Eric Adams defends Trump in his deep blue city, and so much more:
- Harris has changed her tactics and messaging. She has morphed from joyful warrior to crazy-sounding doomsayer, telling voters that Trump, who has been Israel’s most constant champion, is the second coming of Hitler. You don’t do that unless you’re losing.
- You also don’t start padding your rallies with celebrities to attract crowds, but the recent Houston event, which advertised an appearance by Beyoncé, massively backfired.
- Polling has shifted in favor of Trump, not dramatically, but steadily. Predictions markets have also moved toward the former president.
- Major newspapers have declined to endorse Harris, a startling departure from past practice.
- Democrat senators running for reelection in toss-up states are running humiliating ads attaching themselves to Trump.
Worried by falling poll numbers, Harris and her surrogates have recently ramped up incendiary – and yes, dangerous – accusations against Donald Trump, likening him to Hitler and even suggesting he will throw his political enemies into internment camps.
But the New York Times reports that Future Forward, Harris’ foremost super PAC, has warned the campaign that her focus on fascism and Trump’s character isn’t working; his favorability ratings in the latest New York Times/Siena poll, after all, match those of Kamala Harris. People want to hear about policies instead.
Ironically, some of this idiotic vitriol is spilling from Hillary Clinton, who escaped any punishment at all for myriad misdeeds, including destroying and lying about government-protected communications, recklessly mishandling classified information, and using campaign funds to originate the Russia hoax, a completely fabricated attack that undermined Trump’s presidency from the start.
Trump could have gone after Clinton on a number of fronts – including the extremely dubious operations of her foundation – but chose not to. Unlike the Biden White House, Trump did not weaponize his Justice Department against his political enemies.
The irresponsible rhetoric is not Harris’s only new tactic. Like Clinton in 2016, the Democrat candidate is showcasing endless celebrities – Bruce Springsteen, Magic Johnson, Eminem and others – in hopes of filling the bleachers.
But in Texas, fans grew angry when a much-hyped appearance by Beyoncé resulted in a four-minute lecture about abortion rights instead of a concert. People don’t like being deceived.
The star power didn’t help Clinton in 2016, and seemingly isn’t doing much for Harris, either. The Real Clear Politics shows Donald Trump leading Harris by a whisker in the average of national polls, but here is the real news: he has the momentum.
Several major polls show the two candidates tied, when previously they had Harris in the lead. For example, a New York Times/Siena poll of 2,516 likely voters shows the candidates in a dead heat; the same poll earlier this month had Harris ahead by three.
More importantly, Trump leads in every swing state.
The betting markets have also moved towards Trump, with the RCP average of betting odds showing Trump the favorite by 24 points, 61.8 to 36.9. The predictions bets are so skewed (and deflating for Democrats) that the liberal media is hinting that those numbers can be (and possibly are being) manipulated by just a few large wagers.
According to Bloomberg, a French ‘whale’ has been distorting the numbers on Polymarket, the top betting site with over $2 billion of trading volumes. Using various accounts, the unknown trader has placed $45 million on Trump to win, but is also making a side bet that Taylor Swift will announce that she’s pregnant before the end of the year. Partisan at work or rich dude putting his money behind his instincts? I’ll take the latter.
With Trump ascendent, perhaps it is no surprise that the Washington Post announced it would not endorse Harris this year, abandoning its decades-long traditional backing of Democrat candidates. The shocking decision threw the newsroom into a furor and prompted thousands to cancel their subscriptions.
Rumors are circulating that Jeff Bezos, owner of the Post but also founder of Amazon and space technology company Blue Origin, feared the business risk of getting on Trump’s bad side. Whatever the cause, the decision cannot bode well for Harris, especially as it followed a similar choice by the Los Angeles Times, a reliably liberal paper in Harris’s own state.
Of more importance to voters, probably, are endorsements from trade unions and other interested parties. Here, too, Harris is falling short, failing to win the Teamsters’ traditional Democrat backing, after internal polling found that 58% of their members planned to vote for Trump. The International Association of Fire Fighters, which endorsed Joe Biden in 2020, also declined to throw their weight behind Harris, as did the National Border Patrol Council.
But in Texas, fans grew angry when a much-hyped appearance by Beyoncé resulted in a four-minute lecture about abortion rights instead of a concert. People don’t like being deceived.
The former president is gaining traction in swing states, but it is still shocking to find Democrat incumbent senators fighting for reelection in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads boasting of their ties to Trump.
Democrat Bob Casey in Pennsylvania is running an ad claiming he ‘bucked’ the Biden administration to protect fracking and ‘sided with Trump to end NAFTA.’ Similarly, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin claims in an ad that she ‘got President Trump to sign her Made in America bill…’ For the record, both Casey and Baldwin voted to impeach Donald Trump.
If Democrats running for reelection want to hang onto Trump’s coattails, you can bet he’s pulling ahead. Pennsylvania Democrat Senator John Fetterman recently told a New York Times reporter, ‘We’re in trouble. And it’s undeniable.’ That sounds right.